Mo Williams rumor and Delonte West

http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketball/nba/la-sp-clippers8-2008aug08,0,3370100.story


My fear is that Miami will panic and make Delonte West a deal that is either too big or too short, thereby preventing the Cavs from reaping the true rewards of the restricted free agency system. (See Varejao, Anderson). Hopefully Ferry isn't overplaying his hand. I suspect he still carries a chip on his shoulder from his first crack at free-agent dealings in his rookie GM campaign, after which he was criticized by NBA insiders for being a soft negotiator. The contracts doled out that were not particularly egregious in their yearly amounts, but in each case (Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall, Z, and Hughes) the contract was one year longer than it should have been (in the case of Hughes, though, the extra year was almost certainly needed to lure him from the Wizards). Ferry was especially criticized for "negotiating with himself" on the Ilgauskas deal. Since then, Ferry has tried to reinvent himself as a "tough negotiator," with the media serving as occasional attendants in the makeover.

When I read the latest Cavs' rumor regarding Mo Williams, all I could think was "Oh, God, not again." Are we about to witness another example of Ferry either horribly misjudging talent, or over-valuing Lebron's personnel preferences? Finding a potential starting two guard is much easier than starting over again at the point guard position and still not having the answer at the two guard. Gibson is basically either a third guard, or a starter on a team with a talented big guard (read: not Mo Williams). A starting backcourt of Mo Williams and Daniel Gibson would be horribly undersized and one of the worst defensive backcourts in the league. Delonte West, on the other hand, could actually pair quite nicely with a guy like Mo Williams.

My hope, obviously, is that Gibson is the one on the trading block, not West, but my sense is that the Cavs (and Lebron) view Gibson as the untouchable commodity and West, therefore, is automatically the one being discussed in trade talks. This is very similar to the myopic stance they took a few years back with Varejao and Drew Gooden. Ferry should have traded high on Varejao in the middle of the 2006/2007 season. They were intent on keeping Varejao, though, forcing them to make Gooden the centerpiece of any trade conversation. The Cavs misjudged Varejao's upside and also assumed his impending restricted free agent status would allow them to keep him as a young, cheap, big through the signing of Lebron's next contract. (perhaps they could have made a trade for Bibby had they been willing to include Varejao, rather than Gooden, in a deal. As it turned out, Gooden, not Lebron's pet of the week, Varejao, was indeed the legit starter). The Cavs paid dearly for this when their optimism and marketing of "wild Thing" was enthusiastically adopted by agent Dan "Donald" Fegan.

The situation now is not much different. West is the more likely starter, not Gibson. Delonte West is arguably the best ballhandler the Cavaliers have had in the Lebron James era. He has basically given us everything Larry Hughes did, only for a fraction of the cost. He can guard two positions adequately, can play in transition or in the half court, and is generally an offensive asset rather than a liability. Is he an all-star? Probably not. But then again, neither is Gibson (or Hughes, for that matter). And if you look at the point guards available year after year, and combine that with West's performance in the playoffs, it seems like he's a pretty good fit with this team. Yes, West hasn't been a starter for long, but it's not as if he is asking for anything much over the midlevel exception ($5.85 million -- for comparison Gooden signed for around $7 million per year). My hunch is that West would take significantly less than the midlevel in a long-term deal -- something similar to the deal that Louis Williams just signed (five years/$25 million) to play as a backup for the Sixers. The Cavs supposedly won't sign West for more than the $20 million/five year deal that Gibson got. Sheer lunacy. Yes, Boobie has a nice stroke, but he doesn't quite have the handles of a true point guard and his defense is suspect (Sounds a lot like a young Damn Jones, though I think his midrange game has more potential -- I haven't completely abandoned my B.J. Armstrong comparison yet).

Part of the problem, I believe, goes back to that 2005 offseason. Ferry views the extra years of a contract as purely a bargaining chip in his favor. This is certainly the case in unrestricted free agency, when the players are older, and the team is, by definition, paying market value for the player. The rules of restricted free agency, though, make it nearly impossible for a player to get real market value (though Deng and Iguadala's recent contracts surely challenge this point). The players are also generally younger and just entering the prime of their careers. Therefore, the restricted player's best bet is to sign a 2-3 year guaranteed contract, ensuring some long term security, but also quickly getting to unrestricted status where he can earn full market value while still in his twenties. Contract length in these situations should be preferable to the team. If the player is worth having around at all (let alone starting), the team should want to get more years at the discounted rate during the player's prime.

West is 25, and almost certainly will play his best ball during the next 3-5 years. If he signs for five years there is significant chance this will be his biggest contract. A shorter deal isn't good for the team, as the luxury tax is more of an issue in the short term (the team would actually be paying more for the first several years of his services that they would later in the deal when, hopefully, they are not paying the tax), and a free agent replacement for West will cost more (likely at least the midlevel/max length for a legit starter who is also likely to be past his prime for a significant portion of the deal). So, the Cavs should go ahead and give West his $5 million per year, but, as with Gibson's deal, he should be willing to sign for four years with the fifth year as a team option. Five million per year is still generally a team friendly contract for a young point guard (not catastrophic if he ends up being a role player/backup and very good value if he remains the starter). As a bonus, Gibson (much like Varejao several years back) might be a more sought-after commodity in a trade -- a young specialist with a cheap contract.

My overall message to Ferry is this: If you aren't willing to trade the Anderson Varejao's and Daniel Gibson's of the world, then you probably can't expect to get a legit starter in return. Given that the cap situation makes expiring contracts the team's most valuable commodity, one would expect that that the Cavs will have to include at least one young, marginally talented player with a cheap contract. And if Daniel Gibson is what you have to give up to get a difference maker, then so be it. Signing West long-term would give them multiple young players with reasonable contracts. Keeping the right players though, not the most popular ones, might prove to be Ferry's biggest challenge.