Just wanted to follow up my previous message regarding whether the Cavs should want to give a large, multi-year deal to someone like Damon Jones. I did a bit of research, and here's what I came up with:
a) According to CBS SportLine.com, Damon Jones ranked as the 17th best point guard in the league last year, solidly in the bottom half of NBA starting point guards (though more than a few teams used a two-headed monster approach, including Cleveland, and, notably, Memphis with J-Will and Earl "Randy" Watson). Here are the players surrounding Jones on the list with 2004-2005 salaries (in millions, of course):
14) Rafer Alston 3.5
15) Chucky Atkins 4.2
16) Jason Terry 7.5
17) Damon Jones 2.5
18) Gary Payton 5.4
19) Jeff McInnis 3.6
20) Luke Ridnour 1.5
The average salary of these players was about 4 million last year. For an even better look at what a player of this caliber makes we can lop off the high and low outliers, giving us an average salary of 3.84 million. So, here again, the Cavaliers would be in the ballpark offering him around 3.5 million. Granted, CBS Sportsline is not the be all/end all for rating players, but I am merely using it as a place to start. Now comes the really fun part:
http://www.basketballreference.com/players/playerpage.htm?ilkid=JONESDA01
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jonesda01.html
Using these two sites, I decided to see what NBA players Damon Jones stacked up to career-wise. I checked both for active players (for 2005-2006 contract comparison) and all players (for long-term contract value). Here's what I see:
On the first site, which measures career stats, the most similar current player is Pat Garrity (age 29), a forward, making about $2.9 million. The most similar current GUARD is Rafer Alston(also age 29), who last year signed a five year deal worth $21 million (with a club option for a sixth year at an additional $7 million). So, Alston, a slightly better player by the numbers, will get paid somewhere between $3.5 and 4 million next season. This doesn't take into account current market value variation but, more or less, we have our price range, do we not?
The second site is overall a better site, though it merely gives us the "most similar season at age" comparison, which isn't quite as useful, since there are many individual seasons that don't reflect a player's career path and potential very well at all. For example, DJ's last season was very similar statistically to Danny Ainge's at age 28. Except that Ainge had already had a nice little career up until that point (averaging double-figures in scoring for 4 straight seasons), while DJ is coming off a career year (his ONLY year averaging double-digits) Those other guys on the list are mostly role players (I especially liked Lucious Harris).
Now, you need those types of players on playoff/championship caliber teams, but are they the guys you give multi-million/multi-year deals to? I guess it depends on the player and the need, but for the most part I say no way, mostly because they are probably not the long-term answer at that position. Two or three year deals is preferable. Four if you are being generous, five if you are completely desperate. Now, we are slightly desperate, so I would think something slightly less than Alston's deal would be both appropriate and negotiable for Jones(age adjusted since Alston signed his deal last year, at age 28). So, four years escalating from 3.2 - 4 million per year, with a club option for a fifth year. That way if you make a trade for a better PG at some point, you have a slightly over-priced, but very capable backup/3rd guard (which is what DJ really is). Until then, you have perhaps a slightly underpaid, undersized (under talented) starter, which is fine when you have Eric Snow and four or five legit offensive weapons (LeBron, Z, Hughes, Gooden, Marshall).
Hopefully, the right situation will present itself and the Cavs will be able to find a young point guard out there, but he really wasn't there this year. The closest players out there were Earl Watson, a defensive player, and not exactly a superstar (but he's only 26, which is huge) and Jaric (also 26 and also not a superstar). Minnesota was able to land Jaric in a sign and trade because they had a very good point guard to give and draft picks. We had neither draft picks nor a very good point guard (Neither of which is Ferry's fault) What we have is the overpaid Eric Snow, who was given a 4 year/$25.6 million contract extension at age 30 ( essentially giving him six years starting at age 28 -- yes, we have him for those four extra years starting THIS YEAR!), despite never being much more than a marginal starter/excellent backup. Is this a situation you would want Ferry to repeat?
Monday, August 15, 2005
Saturday, August 13, 2005
Letter to Roger Brown
Saturday, August 13, 2005 1:28 AM
Roger,
I was disappointed at what a one-sided view you took on the Cavaliers efforts to sign a point guard. You used the "average salary" to make a point regarding Damon Jones' free agent value. The average salary is irrelevant, because it skews toward the high end because of a few star (often overpaid) players (this would be like using the average salary of all MLB shortstops after A-Rod signed his historic deal. Who cares what the AVERAGE salary is?). Perhaps the MEDIAN salary would have have been a better statistic? You're better than this, man.
I happen to think that Damon Jones would be a nice fit in a Cavaliers uniform, but at what cost? Any objective measure shows Jones to be a similar caliber player to last year's Cavaliers point man, Jeff McInnis (Jones averaged slightly fewer points and assists in about 3 less minutes per game). Like McInnis, Jones is consider a suspect defender, and both are considered to be 2nd tier (at best) starting NBA point guards. McInnis just signed a contract for two years and 7 million with the Nets. Assuming that the Cavaliers offered the full 3.7 million available under the cap, it seems that the Cavaliers made a fair offer. Granted, McInnis is a few years older, but at 29, Jones is no spring chicken. Along those lines, I have also heard that a major sticking point for the Cavaliers and Jones is the length of the contract, not just the annual salary demand. It should also be noted that Sarunas Jasikevicious (also 29), a more highly sought-after player, signed a deal for 3 years at 4 million per year. Again, this puts DJ's appropriate value in perspective. While a desperate team might offer a player like Antonio Daniels 6 million per year, and the top-rated free agent point guard, Jaric, may ASK for the mid-level, that doesn't mean they are worth the money in the long run. And it certainly doesn't mean that Jones is worth more than 3.7 million. Jones may get mid-level type money to play for a non-contender, but I credit Ferry for not risking the team's future on a non-premier player.
Perhaps your real point is that the Cavaliers clearly did not save enough money after signing Z, Hughes, and Marshall, to land a top-level PG. In truth, this was a very thin year at the point guard position, so there wasn't much quality to choose from anyway (the best proven player was an aging Stoudamire!). I think this is why Ferry was willing to spend at the other positions first and hope that one of the second tier guys would look at coming this way as a good opportunity to start on a playoff caliber team and advance their careers. Or, perhaps Ferry looked at the free-agent talent and decided that our best shot at a quality point guard was through a trade (hence the Jaric meeting).
Roger,
I was disappointed at what a one-sided view you took on the Cavaliers efforts to sign a point guard. You used the "average salary" to make a point regarding Damon Jones' free agent value. The average salary is irrelevant, because it skews toward the high end because of a few star (often overpaid) players (this would be like using the average salary of all MLB shortstops after A-Rod signed his historic deal. Who cares what the AVERAGE salary is?). Perhaps the MEDIAN salary would have have been a better statistic? You're better than this, man.
I happen to think that Damon Jones would be a nice fit in a Cavaliers uniform, but at what cost? Any objective measure shows Jones to be a similar caliber player to last year's Cavaliers point man, Jeff McInnis (Jones averaged slightly fewer points and assists in about 3 less minutes per game). Like McInnis, Jones is consider a suspect defender, and both are considered to be 2nd tier (at best) starting NBA point guards. McInnis just signed a contract for two years and 7 million with the Nets. Assuming that the Cavaliers offered the full 3.7 million available under the cap, it seems that the Cavaliers made a fair offer. Granted, McInnis is a few years older, but at 29, Jones is no spring chicken. Along those lines, I have also heard that a major sticking point for the Cavaliers and Jones is the length of the contract, not just the annual salary demand. It should also be noted that Sarunas Jasikevicious (also 29), a more highly sought-after player, signed a deal for 3 years at 4 million per year. Again, this puts DJ's appropriate value in perspective. While a desperate team might offer a player like Antonio Daniels 6 million per year, and the top-rated free agent point guard, Jaric, may ASK for the mid-level, that doesn't mean they are worth the money in the long run. And it certainly doesn't mean that Jones is worth more than 3.7 million. Jones may get mid-level type money to play for a non-contender, but I credit Ferry for not risking the team's future on a non-premier player.
Perhaps your real point is that the Cavaliers clearly did not save enough money after signing Z, Hughes, and Marshall, to land a top-level PG. In truth, this was a very thin year at the point guard position, so there wasn't much quality to choose from anyway (the best proven player was an aging Stoudamire!). I think this is why Ferry was willing to spend at the other positions first and hope that one of the second tier guys would look at coming this way as a good opportunity to start on a playoff caliber team and advance their careers. Or, perhaps Ferry looked at the free-agent talent and decided that our best shot at a quality point guard was through a trade (hence the Jaric meeting).
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