Cavaliers playoff scenarios: Lebron not in control

Interesting playoff scenarios tonight. Here's what's on the line:

Possible playoff matchups:
Chicago: Miami, Orlando, Washington, New Jersey
Cleveland: Miami, Orlando, Washington
New Jersey: Toronto, Chicago
Washington: Toronto, Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit
Orlando: Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit

Only Chicago and New Jersey control their own destiny. And they play each other. Actually, only New Jersey is in complete control of their own destiny, in that they can win and assure playing Toronto. So, it's almost like a playoff game in that they can eliminate Chicago (at least as their first round opponent) by beating them tonight. This is good for the Cavaliers, sort of.

A Chicago win will assure the Bulls the second seed, but could leave them playing Washington, Orlando or New Jersey. New Jersey, likewise, cannot assume that the teams below them will lose, since both Washington and Orlando could move up in the seeding with a victory, and thereby avoid playing Detroit.

New Jersey owns tiebreakers versus both teams below them. They swept the season series from Washington and went 2-2 versus Orlando. They also have a better conference record than Orlando.But Orlando holds the tiebreaker over Washington by virtue of a superior record versus playoff teams within the conference.

Washington, though injured, is facing a very unmotivated Indiana team. Washington can avoid playing Detroit in the first round with a victory, ensuring them either the sixth or seventh seed. If they lose, Orlando can pass them for the honor of playing Cleveland or Chicago. The Magic, with something to play for, host Miami, a team trying to get healthy for the playoffs with absolutely nothing on the line.

The Cavs are obviously not in control of their own destiny. They need a Chicago loss/New Jersey win (and a victory over the Bucks) to avoid Miami and secure the No. 2 seed. So the real question is who would New Jersey rather play, Toronto or Chicago? And if New Jersey were to lose, who would Washington rather play?

A win tonight will give N.J. splits (2-2) versus both Chicago and Toronto, but Chicago just took them apart a few weeks ago, so you have to assume they'll be happy to avoid them in the first round. But this is not quite as meaningful of a game for New Jersey as we would like it to be. Here's what the experts say:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dailydime-070417

Washington has been spanked by Chicago recently as well, so I think it's safe to say they would prefer to play Toronto or Cleveland. As previously stated, a victory for Washington keeps them out of Detroit, but it also significantly decreases their chance of playing Chicago, while increasing their chances of playing Toronto. By my calculations, their chances of playing Cleveland are about the same whether they win or lose (1 in 4 compared to 1 in 5).

The best scenario for Cleveland is obviously for both New Jersey and Washington to win, as the depleted Wizards are probably the weakest team right now.