Lebron, Gooden, and the draft

Well, I have come to grips with the Lebron deal.

In the end, the signing is a good thing, even if it's for one less year than we all would like. It certainly made me feel better that some other marquee players took the same route, especially with Wade coming off a championship season in Miami. Financially, the shorter deal makes total sense for James and Wade, both of whom are making enough money from endorsements to justify the risk. Plus, Wade must realize that his chances of winning another championship in Miami will diminish significantly each year as Shaq gets older, and drastically once he stops playing altogether. I thought 'Melo was smart to take the longer deal. Bosh definitely should have taken the longer deal.

According to published reports, the Cavs and Drew Gooden are far apart on a new contract. Drew is restricted and no team has the cap room to make him a significant offer. So, the Cavs are obviously very much in the driver's seat. I just hope they don't overplay their hand; offensively talented 24 year old power forwards are not easy to come by. And regardless of the
Cavs' negotiating position, Gooden was the team's second best offensive option in the playoffs last year, in addition to being their most consistent rebounder. Right now it seems that the Cavs aren't offering much more than the mid-level exception, somewhere around $6-million per year. Clearly this is the bottom side of the negotiations. The top side is the 6-year/$60-million deal that Nene just inked. I predict that Drew's contract, if he signs, will be in the $8 million per year range. The Cavs are saying they will match any offer Drew gets -- the same posture Chicago took with restricted free-agents Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler last year, when there was a lot more money going around. Chandler got signed to a long-term, bad contract (6 years/$64 million). Curry was signed and then traded to the Knicks. Personally, I think $10 million a year wouldn't be such a terrible deal for the Cavaliers, especially considering they are almost certain to get the best six years of the guy's career. But the Cavs are playing things close to the vest, basically stalling to see if they can pull off some kind of blockbuster in a sign and trade deal.

Lastly, I have been researching Shannon Brown and Daniel Gibson since the days leading up to the draft. I was going to post a compilation of my findings tonight anyway, but as I was reading up on the Gooden situation I came across this article by Terry Pluto. Much as it pains me to say it, Terry did his research well, and did his job for me. Terry seems to have the scoop on the Cavs again lately, no doubt the result of Danny Ferry returning to town:

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/14949076.htm

I think the end result here is a guy in Brown who could contribute immediately as a third/fourth guard and eventually be a starter. Upside equals solid NBA starter. Downside is probably marginal NBA starter/sixth man type. He is basically a slightly bigger (presumably healthier) Dajuan Wagner who can play tough defense and shoot a little bit. I heard an interview with Ferry and he said that they do not think that Brown has the handles to play the point. But Ferry also said in the same interview that he expects Larry and Lebron to handle the ball anyway. So, there you have it. Obviously they think he can fill Flip Murray's role right now (Murray signed a smaller-than-expected contract with Detroit), and perhaps even be a little better (better defender, probably a better shooter).

Gibson is a tougher read. Supposedly he is 6'2", and even at that he is considered small as a shooting guard. I was going to make the same comparison to Damon Jones. And I often compare Damon Jones to Steve Kerr. Steve could shoot, but was always too slow to defend well or penetrate, and never had quite good enough ball-handling skills to play the point. That
doesn't mean you wouldn't want him on your team though. Supposedly Gibson is a better defender than either Kerr was or Jones is, but that remains to be seen. When is come to defense, though, it doesn't hurt to be 20 years old (Jones is 30). It's not a coincidence that Jones has been mentioned in trade rumors.

Overall, the Cavs, with some luck, did a good job in the draft. Chad Ford had our picks ranked as the 21st, 28th, and 51st best NBA prospects this year. Ferry clearly values guys that can shoot and defend, especially further down in the draft. Most of the players they were reportedly interested in at point guard were poor shooters, and I think they were overjoyed to see Brown fall to them. That said, I think there were players higher in the draft that they would have loved to have had. I know they were very high on Randy Foye (picked 7th), for instance, who has been lighting it up in the summer league, and I believe they were trying to trade up to get him. Why else would they have worked a guy out who was clearly not going to be available late in the first round?

Danny Ferry and Mark Shapiro have become good friends, so it's no shock that they share some of the same organizational philosophies. The one trend we see here is that Ferry is especially averse to paying free agent dollars for marginal talent that could be obtained through the draft. When it comes to the team's top seven rotation players, you are going to have to pay (and sometimes overpay), but beyond that, some version of VORP clearly comes into play. The main difference between Shapiro and Ferry in this scenario is obviously their respective owners' purse strings.